Australian National Team Thread - #ArnieOut!

3-0 lead over Chinese Taipei at half time

Finished 6-0

A real game comes next,2 wins should be enough though to progress to the next stage.

A draw will definitely secure it. The best second-placed teams are determined by results against the first and third-ranked teams in each group, and we’re already the best second-placed team on goal difference.

Anybody found any streams for today’s game against Sth Korea? I can’t find one so far but would love to watch if there’s one out there.

Sadly, nothing indicating a view on Foxtel. It’ll probably be a shitty 0-0 draw anyway, as it will secure qualification to the next phase regardless.

I think that for the last game, the Socceroos twitter account sent out some stream details; assume same again tonight

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Asian commentary but no facebook required.

Up 2-0 after 25 min
Make that 2-1

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Brilliant! Thank you.

2-2 now and regressed into that shitty draw @BlueSky predicted. We’ve been passing between our back 3 and goalkeeper, literally, for about 5 or 10 mins now.

To be fair, Korea is doing the same. A draw helps everyone right?

From wikipedia… not sure it is so simple that we go through on this draw? Not sure who everyone still needs to play

Happy to be corrected! Is it as simple as if you win against both teams that aren’tfourth placed you are highly likely to actually be in first place, meaning most teams in second will do at best a win and a draw, so teams currently in second as per table below will likely either only get a draw and thus gd saves us, and teams who are in third or last at the moment would need big wins to jump into second place and for that big win to be against a team that doesnt come 4th in order to jump us in this second place ladder… and there aren’t enough teams left in said position?

Ranking of second-placed teamsEdit

Due to groups having different number of teams (after the withdrawal of Pakistan from Group F), the results against the fourth-placed teams in four-team groups are not considered for this ranking.

Pos Grp Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification
1 H Australia 2 1 1 0 8 2 +6 4 Final tournament
2 I Myanmar 1 1 0 0 7 0 +7 3
3 C Iran 1 1 0 0 3 1 +2 3
4 E Syria 1 1 0 0 2 0 +2 3[a]
5 F Tajikistan 1 1 0 0 2 0 +2 3[a] Possible Final tournament[b]
6 D Saudi Arabia 1 1 0 0 2 0 +2 3[a]
7 A Oman 1 1 0 0 2 1 +1 3
8 J Malaysia 1 1 0 0 1 0 +1 3[c]
9 K Vietnam 1 1 0 0 1 0 +1 3[c]
10 B Bahrain / Palestine 1 1 0 0 1 0 +1 3[c]
11 G Singapore (E) 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 2

Just going to try to figure out myself. The top four runners up ranked by performance against first and third in their groups qualify.

Looking at the groups, I think Saudi could beat us with a high scoring draw in their last match if the maldives beat lebanon. Any draw for Myanmar gets them above us.

All other groups see 1v2 in last game and team in third cannot jump into second, therefore a draw means we are ahead on gd and any win by either team makes us ahead on points… but that assumes 4th place in group doesnt change.

If last place changes in groups b and k, then the second placed teams would have plus 6 and plus 9 on gd, so (high scoring for the 6 gd team) draws in their last games would put them above us in the second place table. So i think mathematically there is a chance we are out but it requires A LOT of games to go exactly the right (wrong?) way

Group B - both Bahrain and Palestine beat Sri Lanka 9-0. If sri lanka win vs bangladesh and a draw in bahrain v palestine then 2nd place will have 4 points and plus 9 gd against 1st and 3rd, ahead of us on 4pts/plus 6gd/8goals scored

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification
1 Bahrain (H) 2 2 0 0 10 0 +10 6[a] Final tournament
1 Palestine 2 2 0 0 10 0 +10 6[a] Possible Final tournament
3 Bangladesh (E) 2 0 0 2 0 2 −2 0
4 Sri Lanka (E) 2 0 0 2 0 18 −18 0

Group D - Saudi beat maldives 6-0. Maldives win and saudi draw 3 all or higher, then they will be in 2nd with 4 points and gd of plus 6 against first and third but higher goals scored than us

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification
1 United Arab Emirates 2 2 0 0 9 1 +8 6 Final tournament
2 Saudi Arabia (H) 2 2 0 0 8 0 +8 6 Possible Final tournament
3 Lebanon (E) 2 0 0 2 1 8 −7 0
4 Maldives (E) 2 0 0 2 0 9 −9 0

Group I - Myanmar beat Timor leste 7-0. Any draw with japan has them with 4 points vs 1st and third with plus 7 gd, ahead of us.

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification
1 Japan 2 2 0 0 14 0 +14 6 Final tournament
2 Myanmar (H) 2 2 0 0 11 0 +11 6 Possible Final tournament
3 Timor-Leste (E) 3 1 0 2 5 16 −11 3
4 Macau (E) 3 0 0 3 3 17 −14 0

Group k - Vietnam beat Brunei 6 nil. If Brunei beat Indonesia in their last game, and vietnam draws 3all or higher, they will be in second, with 4 points plus 6 gd and 9gs against 1st and third, putting them ahead of us.

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification
1 Thailand[a] (Q) 2 2 0 0 12 0 +12 6 Final tournament
2 Vietnam (H) 2 2 0 0 7 0 +7 6 Possible Final tournament
3 Indonesia (E) 2 0 0 2 0 5 −5 0
4 Brunei (E) 2 0 0 2 0 14 −14 0

If ALL of this happens we will be 5th of the 2nd place teams when looking at results vs 1st and 3rd, knocking us out. As far as I can tell, there are no other teams / groups where the team that ends up in second can have more than 4 points against first and third, or exactly four points and better gd, or exactly four points and equal gd but better gs than us, so I think literally every game has to go as i have shown above for us not to make it through.

I think…

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The main thing is this.

Group of death
Vietnam
Japan or Sth korea
Australia
Iran.
See how ya go Arnie!

The group of life.

Thailand
Nth Korea
Australia
Bahrain.

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Far from it. I expected an entirely cynical 0-0. It was just a less cynical 2-2.

To be fair, I don’t think it matters which pot we’re in. Its going to be a hard slog regardless to make it through our group, never mind getting to the semi-finals, which will be enough for us to quailfy if Japan also make the final four. I’m particularly nervous about the prospects of facing Vietnam or Qatar. A number of their (very promsing) national team players are still eligible at U23 level. If they don’t face each other before the semi-finals, I’d expect them to get to the semi-finals, minimum.

Our best hopes of even making it out of the group would probably be to draw Thailand, North Korea and Bahrain (Viska nailed it first). Anything else is going to be really tough for us. Our youngsters are not playing enough and many are not doing enough when they play.

We’ve got nine months to get up to scratch and be able to have a good go at this. Arnie seems keen to drive it hard so hopefully they will

The question is, how much is backing the Olyroos really going to help the players develop long-term? They need to be playing regularly at their clubs for starters, and there really aren’t enough players in the U23 squad currently who are doing that. Just look at our dire situation in goal. Not one of those three keepers have played a single senior game for their clubs this season, as far as I can see.

I think it may have Milicic who said in an article last week that when our young players aren’t getting enough minutes at club level we have to combat that with programs and camps and games with the national team age group.

Here it is

Milicic said local progress could come in one of two ways.

“You either got to have a league where players at that age are playing so much football at a high level or you have to invest in the program so that these teams are constantly getting good quality tours, games away from home,” he said.

https://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/ffa-smashed-by-matildas-boss-milicic-over-australia-s-youth-programs