With a bit over two weeks to go before the season resumes, here is a reminder of where we are currently standing in the competition.
City are eight points behind us but have played three more games than us. This means that they have to win all their remaining three games to claim a maximum 9 more points and hope that we do not pick up any more points (GD would put us ahead if we were on equal points). The greater threat is Wellington, if they were to collect maximum points from the remainder of the season (54) then we have to collect 6 points from six games to equal their tally and overtake them on GD.
As has been pointed out in a previous post, the Max Possible Points column is determined by simply multiplying the number of remaining games for a team by three and adding that number to their current points tally. This is an easy column to construct in a spreadsheet but it comes with a caveat. Whilst it is mathematically possible for each individual team to achieve the points in each row, it is not possible for all the teams to achieve all of the maximum possible points as all of these teams will be playing each other and, therefore, some will gain one or three points at the expense of other teams.
The following is the link that Rowdy posted early and is a more detailed analysis showing the probabilities of a teamâs final position based on games and opponents yet to be played.
When the final draw is known I will supplement updates to the table above with a table similar to the one below (which I posted two years ago when Newcastle were our closest rivals) together with explanatory text detailing the earliest possible moment that we can claim the Premierâs Plate.
I may need to play with the format of this table if we have a one game per day arrangement rather than one round per weekend.
Some concerns that the first game in Melbourne may not be playable:
Melbourne Victory had been scheduled to kick-off the resumed A-League season at AAMI Park on 16 July, but the situation in Victoria has prompted doubts over whether that fixture can be played.
Plus Queensland is putting any sporting team that plays a team from Melbourne in 14 days quarantine.
Surely Victory and City move up to Sydney temporarily. They could potentially play out of Wollongong if anything. Or join the Storm to wherever theyâre re-basing?
Given that WU would probably be considered a Melbourne team for the purposes of Queenslandâs rule, youâd think all three would have to relocate. Thatâs going to be a logistical nightmare once you include stadium availability, sorting out new flights, etc.
Given the way South Australia has COVID under control, Adelaide should be the hub for the 3 Victorian teams and, if needed, Perth.
Not only is HIndmarsh a purpose built football facility with no ground sharing or overuse issues, itâs also a good size for the current crowd restrictions.
The turf was always going to be replaced this week - unfortunately, after this weekend, it was always going to be reported as a reaction to the injuries
Nice one. So if we win that first game against Wellington, we go to 51, as does Wellingtonâs maximum. Thatâd put us beyond the reach of City and Perth, and then we need only need either a) 1 more point over the next 5 games, b) Wellington to drop any points over their 5 games, or c) maintain our superior goal difference to seal it.
Maybe because we werenât due to play Wellington next pre-Covid, but I didnât realise we were so close.
