Russia v Ukraine - WWIII or Putin's cliff dive?

Bloody hell they don’t mess around… I’m assuming they picked up the right guys and not some randoms who were in the wrong place at the wrong time and looked similar. I’m sure that would never happen in mother Russia

I’m shocked that they have seemingly accepted this was the work of ISIS, and not just doubled down on Ukraine for it.

They’re trying very hard to link Ukraine into it - apparently the suspects were apprehended all close to the Ukraine border, and they’re trying to suggest from Ukraine they had passage out of Europe.

Perhaps Putin and his cronies are smart enough to realize that if they try and pin this on Ukraine, it’s only going to backfire on them.

I don’t think the Russian military is in any state to go launching an invasion of Tajikistan, they certainly don’t have the capability, but wouldn’t be surprised if they launch a few air strikes in the country. I don’t see them letting this go through to the keeper.

I think the outfits matched what was in the videos, so unlikely they got the wrong people

All of their messaging is aimed at shoring up support back home. I don’t think they’ll be the least bit bothered if nobody outside of Russia believes them. Wall-to-wall state media coverage in Russia, along with presumably strict controls on what is shown/posted online, is going to make it almost impossible for the locals to find out what’s really going on.

Sure unlikely but really that should be for a judge to decide, not Vlad the impaler the local FSB goon

I’ve seen a bunch of MAGAt’s online celebrating such swift justice, without the slightest hint of awareness simultaneously decrying the drawn out, by the book prosecution of their oranje messiah.

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Since Russia started their winter counter offensive in October last year, looks like they’ve managed to capture approximately 500 square kilometers, of territory, however they have been taking approximately 1,000 casualties a day (unsure if killed, or wounded or mixture of both).

Russia’s also announced they’re going to be having a larger than expected Spring conscription period.

Might be a long summer for Ukraine.

Ukraine just knocked back the biggest tank attack since the start of the war. Some 36 Russian tanks launched an offensive, they lost 20 tanks

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NATO reporting that Ukraine has decreased Russian refinery capacity by between 10-15% with their recent attacks. Pretty big hit to their production and potential income. In their latest attack, they flew a remote controlled plane, packed with TNT, 1200km to hit a Russian target.

Overnight, Russia sunk to an even lower low. They hit a target in Kharkiv, waited for a period of time and then hit the exact same target. An attack obviously designed to kill first responders and rescue personnel.

Apart from that, the European block of NATO is rallying and really ramping up production. France reporting they’ve doubled their production of Caesar Howitzer systems to 12 completed every month, and expect to hit 20 per month extremely soon. The same is looking for artillery shells and reports are that Ukraine is preparing to receive huge numbers of artillery shells in the coming weeks.

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Hopefully we see Ukraine push Russia back in places they’ve lost ground in.

I’m a bit worried they’re conceding too much ground, but I don’t know enough as to whether it’s an acceptable amount of ground to lose or not.

Some more news out of Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was hit by drones today. One of the reactor buildings was hit, however there was no major damage. Both sides claiming it was the other, so far unconfirmed as to what’s occured.

Estonia and the Czech Republic have discovered a mixture of 2 million rocket and artillery shells that could be purchased for Ukraine. They’re putting together a kitty to do it, this would, in theory, allow Ukraine to match Russia’s ammunition supply for the entire year. Something that they’ve not yet been able to do, while NATO countries ramp up production.

Over the weekend Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on multiple Russian airfields. Reports suggest that Russia suffered heavy losses with up to 10 aircraft destroyed and a number damaged. In a weird twist, UK intelligence has revealed photos of Russian airbases. Russian forces have been painting realistic stencils on the concrete of aircraft in an effort to confuse intelligence services. In all their wisdom, Russian Helicopter pilots have decided to park on top of the paintings, even though they’re paintings of fighter jets

In one of the craziest stories though, Ukrainian tankers managed to sneak through and steal a Russian T-72B3 tank, equipped with a drone jammer. There’s still no real details as to what the go is, but it’s definitely sitting in Ukrainian hands.

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The U.S. should supply Ukraine with some B-52s, and then just absolutely carpet bomb the fuck out of those airfields.

Well colour me shocked

Overall numbers on recidivist crimes are hard to establish because the Russian government restricts the release of any public information that puts the war in a bad light. A survey of Russian court records by independent media outlet Verstka found that at least 190 criminal cases were initiated against pardoned Wagner Group recruits in 2023. That included 20 cases of murder or attempted murder as well as rape, robbery and drug-related crimes, among others.

Apparently there’s been drone attacks 3 days running.

Russia is blaming Ukraine, Ukraine blaming Russia. Cosmic ballet etc.

Also, the United States has “re-distributed” a whole bunch of small arms and ammunition (5,000 Kalashnikovs, including 500,000 rounds, RPGs etc) that was destined for Yemen courtesy of Iran. It sounds a lot, but it’s a small drop in the ocean of what the cost of weaponry is. 500,000 rounds will probably get chewed up in less than a couple of days by Ukranian troops along the front line.

But any ammo gift I’m sure is welcomed warmly by Ukranian troops.

UK’s David Cameron has apparently held talks with U.S. Republicans and Donald Trump to discuss the $6bn arms package that’s being blocked in congress.

I don’t understand (aside from Republicans being Republicans) why they would block it to be honest. It’s not like the stores of the US Military are losing these weapons - it’s all coming out of the massive amount of surplus that the U.S. maintains, which will get replenished quickly. I mean we’re talking jobs here people, the republicans are mad for ensuring jobs for Americans - and those true red white and blue American arms industries that the Republicans suck off make more money.

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I’d say there’s been a very liberal sprinkling of Russian money in Congress. Republicans have very much taken up with “America First” slogan, so they see any money being sent externally as money being lost and wasted. It’s not that different to Trump wanting to pull out of NATO etc. The Regan era is very much over with the GOP at this stage. You are right though, it creates huge jobs for the US. Somewhere like 60% of the money being spent on Ukraine is kept in the US to replenish their current stocks of ammunition and equipment. It also allows them to move some of their older stock without any issues

Because enough of them are Russian assets to complement the morons.

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I read somewhere that the United States keeps enough war-reserve stock in several countries around the globe (probably in Australia as well) for about 2-3 months worth of intense combat. These reserves obviously are things like small arms (rifles, mortars, grenades, artillery shells, artillery guns, etc etc) but they also have stock piles of M1 Abrams Tanks, Humvees, APCs, MRAPS etc). There’s a big one in Norway and I’m pretty sure there’s one in Germany and the Czech Republic too. Probably have smaller ones dotted around the rest of Europe in Italy and the UK.

That’s before the reserve stockpiles within the United States itself.

There was a bit of a hysteria late last year with people coming out and saying that the US Reserve stock was running low and at risk of running out of things like artillery and mortar shells, which the Republicans latched onto, but what it really is, is just one of these caches is running low - which can be rapidly resupplied, when it comes to logistics, the U.S. Military is pretty good at that sort of thing.

It’s actually cheaper for the United States when they’re exiting a combat zone to leave everything behind and buy/build new stuff for the reserve caches than transport them home again. It’s why (despite the images being shocking) in Vietnam they were pushing helicopters overboard on aircraft carriers to make room for refugees. It can backfire somewhat however, like when the U.S. pulled out of Lebanon and all of a sudden HAMAS got their hands on tens of thousands of M16s and various small arms (same with Afghanistan).

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This plus Kompromat = bingo.

They have a habit of blocking things just to make Biden look bad, so they can say he is weak on whatever it is.

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I do feel like if Trump gets in, he will end up supporting Ukraine just so he can say he was able to do what Biden couldn’t to make himself look better.