Russia v Ukraine - WWIII or Putin's cliff dive?

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Or it would give Republicans time to kill off any further aid, depending on what happens in November.

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So in the last 24-36 hours several countries have announced futher aid packages to Ukraine, including:

  • Sweden - $1.23 Billion
  • Spain - $1.1 Billion
  • European Union announcing over $2 billion dollars in interest from frozen Russian bank accounts.

In addition, The United States, France, Germany, Sweden, Poland, Denmark, the UK, and Estonia have all given Ukraine permission to use their weapons they have donated to strike inside Russian territory… In the Dainish case, this includes F-16s.

However, Russia is still steadily taking villages and towns in the East. However in Kharkiv it looks like Ukraine has recaptured some of the territory from the latest Russian push. Ukrainian soldiers in the Battle of Vovchansk are claiming it’s worse than Bakhmut.

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Sweden apparently giving them a pair of AWACS planes as a part of their package. Should help them in the air immensely.

Sweden has given them the largest package ever. There’s a bit of contention on whether they would be giving them Gripen fighter jets. They’ve been temporarily told to hold off, but Ukraine is asking them to forge ahead.

There’s also photos of F-16s escorting Zelensky’s plane from Belgium back to Ukraine. Unconfirmed, but rumours circulating that the pilots were Ukrainian. A bit of good news on that front at least.

The West is definitely ramping up though. A new ammunition plant has been opened and operating in the US and the first of the million or so shells is reportedly being delivered to Ukraine from the Czech led initiative. The US is also reportedly delivering a few hundred more Bradley’s to the Ukrainian armed forces. Bradley’s have probably been the biggest success out of all the vehicles received so far.

What we already know, but interesting nonetheless.

Also, the latest updates on Russian casualties are just staggering. I know I’ve mentioned it before.

Ukraine’s losses - killed & wounded are in the vicinity of 70,000 KIA with 100-120,000 wounded.

Russia’s losses - killed & wounded are in the vicinity of 150-170,000 killed. British Estimates put as high as 500,000 killed & wounded, U.S. estimates around 350,000 whilst the French intelligence is saying 150,000 killed, 300,000 wounded,

Staggering.

So they’re running at a killed and wounded rate of somewhere around 2:1 with the Ukrainians, but with nearly 4:1 population.

With those numbers, I reckon Putin keeps pushing chips onto the table.

That said, the longer that Ukraine is an actual fight for Russia, the less likely they are going to be able to undertake further expeditionary adventures westward. It’s in NATO’s interests therefore to ensure that if Russia won’t pull back, that this campaign is as bloody and painful as possible.

Even if Russia loses, I would say they wouldn’t be able to undertake further adventures Westward. The only country now not part of NATO that would be in the path of an advance would be Moldova, and you can very much expect them to join NATO asap should Ukraine fall. Russia has already shown that they can’t sustain a prolonged modern-day attack. The main reason why Ukraine is losing is due to a lack of ammunition and inability to take air-superiority in the area. Should Russia try to take on NATO, their WW2 tactics of flooding an area with explosives before flooding it with cannon-fodder will fall flat on its’ face.

Another point is that Russia has been very much drafting international fighters as well as soldiers from minorities. There’s only so much they can do this, before they start having to draft from major population centres. The moment they do that, it’s going to become ridiculously unpopular and they’ll have to spend more resources on internal security. Their resources aren’t limitless and we’ve seen some extremely old tanks being put into action against Ukraine.

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Putin has been sucking up to China alot lately. The enemy of my enemy etc.

China is being smart about it. I guarantee they’ve allowed some passage of war components to pass through their boarders, but the amount of money they make out of trade with the waste pales in comparison to what it can get out of Russia. A weakened Russia also falls into China’s hands as they suddenly have one of the biggest countries in the world reaching out to them for handouts. Post war, the amount of money they’ll make from selling military components etc (once embargoes have been lifted) will be monumental. Throw in the possibility of very cheap oil into the mix.

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France confirmed they’ll be transferring Mirage 2000-5 fighters by the end of the year

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Ukrainian drones in the last few days may have destroyed a Russian Su-57 fighter jet at a base several hundred kilometres from the Ukraine border.

The Su-57 is Russia’s “equivalent” to the F-22. Only 20 odd have been produced and they have had a limited role in the war so far.

There’s talk that if this plane was in fact destroyed, or even damaged it shows just how thinly spread Russian air defence assets have become. Russia has lost a lot of their main air defence systems in the form of S300s

The Su57 was confirmed as being damaged. It really is telling how far Ukrainian “drones” are flying to hit Russian targets deep within their territory. I mean if you think about it, they’re flying over the front lines, then flying across the border and then over a ridiculous amount of land before hitting their targets. It gets even crazier when you realize the drones are generally remote controlled single engine prop planes packed with explosives…

In other news, Poland had an explosion occur in one of their weapons factories that was fulfilling orders for 120mm shells as well as Piorun MANPADs. Currently investigating but the initial assumption is Russian agents.

The Northern Front has now been stabilized and Russian troops have been reportedly pushed out of 90% of Vovchansk. They they only hold a small sliver of the town. The only negative is that Russia has now managed to take two hamlets on the Eastern Front.

There’s also reports that, after the loss of Russian ferries in Crimea, they’ve now been forced to recommence transporting explosive goods over the Kerch bridge.

One is heavily damaged/destroyed. There’s now reports a second plane next to the initial one was damaged by fire and shrapnel.

Apparently the planes were just parked off the runway in designated bays, no hardered concrete shelters or hangers at all.

If Poland and the investigation does conclude that Russian agents were responsible for the explosion, would it be a stretch for that to Trigger Article 5?

With the Americans and several European countries greenlighting the use of their weaponry for attacks within Russia (much to Putins fury) I wonder if we’ll see the Kerch bridge get knocked out for good once and for all. That’d be huge. I daresay would also illicit more Nuclear sabre rattling from Russia.

A Ukranian civilian flying clubs has been filmed shooting down Russian surveillance drones with a Yak-52.

Brilliant.

Another World War I-Style Dogfight Raged Over Ukraine As A Ukrainian Yak-52 With A Rear Gunner Engaged A Russian Drone (forbes.com)

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In theory Poland could, but I’d say it would be almost impossible to prove. The Czech Republic recently caught a foreign agent trying to set fire to bus shelters etc. He caused a fire that damaged multiple buses. The guy came from South America. He would have most likely been paid cash and would have most like not have known who was paying him to do it. There’s plenty of people in under privileged countries that could be exploited for the sake of cash.

The fuck does Russia have against buses? Lol.

Although arson on public transportation networks and intentionally causing an explosion in a munitions factory are two very different crimes. For all we know the bloke was pissed off that his bus ran late often.

It’s part of a wider ploy by the Russians to sow discord and division in Europe. If they use migrants, it gets blamed on the current government letting them in, especially if they’re centrist/right wing. Sow enough discord and people start turning towards right-wing politics who are generally less disposed in defeating Russia. It also suggests that the current governments can’t defend their own people. It follows up in the Ikea attacks in Lithuania and a number of random attacks.

It’s easier to attack a civilian target, than to attack a military target, especially with the security that’s surrounded any military targets in Europe. My parents were in Rzeszow last year, the main airport link between the world and Ukraine. They said the area is covered by a shitload of patriot systems, soldiers are patrolling everywhere and the military airfield has some mental security.

Also forgot to mention that Belorussia has continued trying to stretch Polish resources by again weaponizing refugees. They’ve re-started ferrying refugees to the Polish border, letting them out and forcing them to try and cross.

Belarus & Russia have started more tactical nuclear weapons training.