Russia v Ukraine - WWIII or Putin's cliff dive?

He’s also just agreed to economic partnerships with Hungary. I mean he’s literally cozying up and glorifying dictators, that’s a pretty obvious one at this stage. If Trump doesn’t try something in the next 4 years, i’m honestly going to be amazed.

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I’m quite certain it will get to that number & beyond. Either way wars cost money. Welcome to the new world, time to pivot and adapt.

Fair. I guess what I meant to say is when does this just turn into an all European battlefront.

Hang on, COD MW3 covered this!!!

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They’re certainly performing a weird geopolitical flex. Besides Trump " we don’t want to pay for this" nonsense surely these people can see how destabilising this is. Is he trying to pull Russia away from China? Is this what his people have advised him? Trump is too stupid to come up with this stuff on his own.

If that’s the end game, it would be absolutely hilarious. He’s driving Russia away from China, while systematically driving Europe, Africa, South America and Asia towards China

Combined the UK & France have more than 500 nuclear weapons.

Surely that is enough of a deterrent to Russia without the US 'nuclear umbrella?

I read something which rang true the other day -

“500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. Europe if there is something we lack today it is not economic or demographic power, ,but the belief that we are truly a global force”

Problem is that Europe is a collection of countries. Currently, any pro-Ukrainian policy being passed, is being held up by Hungary and Slovakia that are trying to get whatever money they want for themselves to get their vote. The same for NATO, Turkey blocked Sweden from entering until they had their way.

Having nuclear weapons is VERY different to making promises to your neighbors that you’ll use them against anyone that gets attacked. Think about how many people in the UK would be happy to run the risk of getting attacked with nuclear weapons just because Russia attacked Ukraine? In saying that, France has suggested they would be willing to do this

I think you can see now that defence spending in Europe to be climbing anyway, there will be less disagreements going forward.

They could always strike bi-lateral or multi-lateral agreements which supersede the EU anyway, I’m thinking the UK who isn’t in the EU technically.

I don’t think anyone is saying that, pretty much all nuclear treaties are about using nukes if someone nukes your ally, not just attacked them.

Sorry, I did mean if Russia attacks Ukraine with nukes.

Not really. Hungary and Slovakia are VERY pro Russia. Orban is on the same level as Lukoshenko when it comes to Putin. They constantly do their best to stop any major EU policy from passing, that properly destabilizes Russia. The only times Orban has allowed stuff to pass, was when they stood to gain a huge amount of money, a big portion of which would have gone straight to Orban’s pockets.

Then in that case, the only reasonable response is a nucelar one, dropping nukes on Poland would fuck up most of mainland Northern Europe, it would be an act of unparalleled aggression, the only realistic threat that would stop that is the fear that Russia would get the same treatment.

Hungary and Slovakia can be suspended, revoking their voting rights. They could be sanctioned with just a majority.

Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union is a procedure in the treaties of the European Union (EU) to suspend certain rights from a member state. While rights can be suspended, there is no mechanism to expel a state from the union.

The procedure is covered by TEU Article 7. It would be enacted where fellow members identify another member as persistently breaching the EU’s founding values (respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities), as outlined in TEU Article 2.

The European Council can vote to suspend any rights of membership, such as voting and representation as outlined above. Identifying the breach requires unanimity (excluding the state concerned)[a], but sanctions require only a qualified majority.[1] The Council acting by majority may alter or lift such sanctions. The state in question would still be bound by the obligations of the treaties.

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Okay but the feds of Germany doesn’t just have $500 billion extra in a bank account. The money comes from some form of debt, which ultimately will get bought by some bankers or other parts of the finance system - low yield government bonds are often bought up by pension funds looking for low risk returns, for example. When things get closer to an autarchy and global banks don’t see the risk as so low anymore, the government starts flogging war bonds to anyone with the cash in the bank to withdraw - think Captain America’s road show from the very first movie.

They can but it’s generally never really happened. Itd be a massive to do something like that on the EU end

The US and Ukraine have agreed to terms for a ceasefire thay will now be sent to Russia. In return, theyve reinstated aid and intelligence to Ukraine. They will no present the terms to Russia. The big part is that it’s a full ceasefire. Previously, it was suggested that it would only cover naval and air attacks

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Looks like the Kursk dream is over. Ukrainian troops made what is essentially an orderly withdrawal and are sitting very close to the border. Sudzha has been evacuated and Russian troops have confirmed they’ve taken it. Some discussions indicated that there was a dangerous lack of FPV drones in the area, after supplies were diverted to Sumy Oblast. Ukraine still holds some territory and there may be some attempts at counter attacks, but it’s definitely not looking amazing. The reports indicate that not many troops were killed in the retreat, however there was a loss in armoured vehicles as they were taken out by Russian drones.

Putin and Trump had a meeting overnight. Apparently Putin has agreed to stop attacks on energy infrastructure. I’m assuming this is more directed at Ukraine as they’ve been absolutely pounding Russian refineries for the past few years (reported drops of oil production of 30%). Recent leaks of Russian documents and statements from Russia indicate that, for a ceasefire to be agreed upon, the following needs to be in place:

  • No more supply of armament to Ukraine
  • Ukraine stops recruitment and mobilization of all troops
  • Intelligence sharing is completely stopped.

I mean it doesn’t take a genius to understand that this plays into Russia’s hands to just reinforce their side over a month and then hit hard at an enemy that’s in the same place it was a month earlier…

For a lasting peace though, reports indicate that Russia wants:

  • A limit to Ukraine’s standing army
  • New elections and Zelensky to step down
  • Guarantees from NATO that they will not have troops in Ukraine
  • Removal of NATO troops from all areas near Russia’s border

Amongst other things.