Everything is on fire - the US politics thread

Apartment living is great this time of year, zero annoyance up here in the penthouse.

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Halloweā€™en was great fun.

Kids running around everywhere, neighbours chatting on the streets, everyone was smiling, beautiful weather.

Complain all you want.

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Great fun as well. Went with a few families of my daughterā€™s friends, including one Canadian family who obviously went all out. Whole neighborhood got into it too

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Seems to be the one time of the year when there is no hassle, everyone is smiling, people talking.

Those who donā€™t take part, donā€™t and those that do, love it.

i took the kids, had a couple of cans as I wandered aroundā€¦ chatted to lots of others.

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I love the inevitable community group posts of people complaining that kids are taking all the lollies from bowlsā€¦

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Community groups on FB are something else arenā€™t they?

Complaints that literally serve no purpose / no one can do anything about. Questions you could type into Google and get the answer for. Then, just the plain weird.

My absolute favourite is ā€œI left left all of this shit I no longer want on the nature strip - feel free to take itā€ outside of a council cleanup window. Thatā€™s just dumping trash you are too lazy to take to the tip or donate, fucking mouth breather.

Proper canā€™t look away car accidents.

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Buzz Aldrin has officially endorsed Trump. The irony when a good portion of his supporters donā€™t believe he even went to the moon.

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#makethemoongreatagain

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My favourite posts are:

  • Theres a dog barking at xxx?
  • Anyone know whats up with the police at xxx?
  • To the person that dumpedā€¦

Endless entertainment teolling those dopes.

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  • What was that big bang I just heard?

To which I always reply: just the universe being created ā€¦

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Does anyone know who owns this dog?

Can anyone now my lawn? I need it done today.

Does anyone have the number for a snake catcher?

They never went to the moon, they were just combatting the Jewish space lasers.

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shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

My youngest son unfortunately has a thing for the Michael Bay Transformers movies so the Dark of the Moon one is the real reason mankind went to the Moon.

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The NY Times editorial pulls no punches:

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There could be something lurking in the water - the Selzer poll of Iowa has Harris in front, in a state that Trump won by 10 in 2016 and 8 in 2020:

Iowa is similar enough to the blue wall states to think that if there is a real Harris lead in Iowa then polls arenā€™t picking something up and Harris is going to be stronger than expected.

Insert claims of fake news here from trump Cult membersā€¦

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Thatā€™s definitely had an impact on probabilities, however several other polls including Atlasintel (the most accurate pollster of 2020) is saying Trump is winning every single swing state.

At this point you can find narratives to go either way and there are 100 different ways to interpret polls, itā€™s pretty crazy. I love the numbers aspect but I think now itā€™s basically a coin toss as to who will win on the day, though from all the polls Iā€™ve seen Trump is probably in a slightly stronger position all things considered.

Odds have come back in. Trump had been down to 1.50ā€¦ now back into 1.70s.

I just hope whichever way the result goes itā€™s clear and decisive.

Thereā€™s a very good chance that someone is winning comfortably enough. Average polling miss is 2-3 points at least over multiple elections, if theyā€™re showing it being this close even an average polling miss will mean a 2 point lead for someone.

Youā€™d have to say thereā€™s some chance that theyā€™ve been over correcting for bias for a while now too. After there were a couple close ones everyone has become terrified of posting something outside the normā€¦ā€¦ apart from the large number of newish, hard to verify, mostly republican pollsters who are showing big leads to Trump, which is very likely a front to try and prove itā€™s been stolen.