I thought I’d start a separate thread about the whole Russia invading Ukraine thing.
Whether its the politics, economics or military aspects of what’s going on, here’s the place t talk
If anyone has any good resources I’ll put them on here. I found a great map that plots all sorts of things from skirmishes to diplomatic phone calls.
Sanctions could be interesting.
Saw a few reports that Russia has been planning this for a long time, and taken financial measures to make sure sanctions don’t affect them too much. Shoring up cash and gold reserves etc.
I don’t think Putin wants a long drawn out war , especially with the West/NATO
If he does launch a full scale invasion, they will occupy Ukraine for a period of time but go no further. That’ll install a pro Russian president and try and force the country into being Russia Lite. Donetsk/Luhansk will increase their geological profile borders.
NATO will build up troops along the Ukrainian border in a show of force and send military equipment to Ukranian forces, but unless Russia decodes to retake the Baltic states, there will be no WWIII.
Once Putin’s installed someone to run the country he’ll withdraw Russian troops and only put them back in if there’s uprisings or civil war.
That’s my take.
So much in the manner of the Soviet occupation of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. They always say that Putin is a nostalgist.
Which may work for a while, but Putin is reliant on the support of the people he’s made rich, sanctions are going to separate them from an awful lot of their wealth. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin dies in his sleep because some of the oligarchs are unhappy about losing billions because Putin wants to show everyone how big his cock is.
So rebels have officially asked for military assistance and the Russian government has allowed the use of military force on foreign land. Almost now looking like the pretext is there. Ukrainian forces are still occupying land that has been recognized by Russia as belonging to the rebels.
The war by no means will be quick. The Soviet occupations of Hungary and Czechoslovakia were closer to martial law, than occupations. There’s going to be, in theory, years of guerilla warfare etc against Russian forces if they enter. They’ll more than likely steamroll their way through the Ukrainian army, but after that, they’ll have to deal with loads of urban warfare etc.
I think its going to be really fucking messy, like the siege of Sarajevo but with bigger guns and more people.
From the look of the maps alone, it gives me vibes of the Georgia incident, where the two territories Russia wants will ostensibly “declare independence” from Ukraine and then the Russian stooge leadership immediately claim they want to become a part of Russia.
Russia claims its all legal and their troops are just there to ensure the peace and see that these “independent” states get what they want.
Ukraine stronger and less willing to take this bullshit than Russia means there’s much more aggression and confrontation about it.
The difference is you also have a whole bunch of Eastern European countries that also remember the last time Russia came to “visit”. Poland is being extremely vocal and they’re drawing in other Eastern European Countries. On top of that England and the US need to be involved as the top powers in the area. They can’t be seen to be too uninterested as they’ll slowly lose any European countries east of Germany
The West has generally been happy to shout and impose sanctions on Russia, ensuring they don’t get stung. The problem is that all this does, is exacerbate the problem as the sanctions are generally passed onto the regular people, while the oligarchs continue doing what they do. Someone like Putin only sees physical action as a threat. If NATO pulled their fingers out, stationed 100,000 troops on the border of Ukraine and fast tracked their entry into NATO, Putin would be left with his dick in his hand.
All that the latest sanctions are doing, is ensuring the Russian billionaires can’t spend their money in Western Europe, they’ll continue living like kings. The West sees the sanctions being effective, as they live in democracies that, if the people get screwed over, will mean the leaders get voted out. Living under a dictatorship, why would Putin and his inner circle care? They pretty much have the whole of Russia as their play thing.
Look at North Korea, sanctions like hell, but they’ve pretty much done nothing to stop Nuclear Weapons or Missile development.
Not sure the bit about the Oligarchs is true, there’s been a huge wealth transfer out of Russia over the past decade, Trump built his business on it. Enough of those fat billionaires get their wings clipped becauseof this and I think you’ll see a ‘regime change’
These billionaires are not going to be happy stuck in Moscow or St Petersburg, they want to be in New York and Monaco, laudering their money and buying massively expensive real estate and toys that simply aren’t available in Russia under sanctions.
North Korea is different for a couple of reasons, mainly, there is no real internal threat to Team Kim, they are ideological extremists, because that’s what their power is based on, so sanctions were never likely to get the expected result especially with 4 years of Trump undemining every effort to rein them in because Putin wants a destabilized west.
But then the Russian Oligarchs are more than likely going to have their wealth squirrelled away in accounts and trusts that won’t link back to them. Most of them will have made their money in nefarious ways that would require it.
The whole point of the asset transfer was to legitimise it, so a lot of them are exposed either directly or via the banks they use, a bunch have already been targeted, can’t travel to a bunch of countries and had all identified assets frozen.
On another note, Mr 2046’s view that Putin will support ‘breakaway regions’ makes sense.
This article does a good job of explaining why Understanding Putin’s narrative about Ukraine is the master key to this crisis | Jonathan Steele | The Guardian
So in the past day, Ukraine has foiled multiple arson attacks on Russian/Russian linked properties. Russia has evacuated all their personnel from Kiev and have taken down their flag in the embassy. On top of that there’s been multiple cyber attacks, as well as discovering thousands of computers that had been infected with malware designed to completely wipe the hard drives. The US is indicating that there may be a full blown invasion by the end of the night.
Interestingly enough, Orban of Hungary and Erdogan of Turkey have condemned the aggression. Two usually close allies of Russia. The only European country really supporting Putin is Byelorussia
Apparently it’s kicking off, explosions and missiles in Kiev and Odessa
Yup, Putin officially declares war
Meanwhile Trump is still sucking Putin’s dick. Mindblowing.
There’s a whole heap of webcams been setup, live streaming some of the different cities. You have Odessa
Not too much happening apart from your general evacuations in Kiev and some police driving around Odessa
There’s a guy sweeping the road in Odessa…
RUSSIAN TROOPS SPOTTED oh no wait that’s a dog crossing the street.