Russia v Ukraine - WWIII or Putin's cliff dive?

Meh, consulate rather then the embassy. Although good strong move

Zelensky playing the astute politician, especially with Trump. He’s publicly stated he’ll be in Türkiye and wants to negotiate with Putin and only Putin on a peace deal. Shows America he wants to negotiate, even though he knows fully well that there’s no chance Putin will arrive.

The EU gave Putin an ultimatum to commence a 30 day ceasefire, otherwise he would face repercussions. The period has ended so the EU has agreed to new sanctions, including sanctions on 100+ ships of Russia’s Grey Fleet. France has also indicated that all Caesar Howitzers produced this year, will be deployed to Ukraine, somewhere in the number of 144 or so.

On top of that, an altercation occurred this morning after Estonia detained a Russian Grey Fleet tanker going through their waters. They ordered the tanker to change course, which it refused. After this, they were detained by the Estonian Navy. During the process, a Russian Su-34S was scrambled and entered Estonian airspace. Portuguese Pilots scrambled and while the Russian exited a few minutes later, the Estonian Government has demanded an explanation from Russia.

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3 Are Arrested in Russia-Linked Sabotage Plot, Germany Says

The men, Ukrainian nationals, were arrested in Germany and Switzerland, the state prosecutor in Berlin said. They are suspected of planning to sabotage commercial freight infrastructure.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/14/world/europe/3-are-arrested-in-russia-linked-sabotage-plot-germany-says.html?unlocked_article_code=1.HU8.NrRA.4auTmZfXqha1&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Russia just launched 367 mixed drones/cruise missiles/missiles at Ukraine, looks like they’ve caused some pretty heavy damage. Ukraine claiming to have shot down or incapacitated 311 of them. It’s also worth mentioning that even a destroyed drone will cause damage when it crashes. It comes on Kiev Day, which celebrates the founding of the city.

Trump is also now claiming that Putin “has changed.” So much for holding all of the cards and creating peace in a matter of days. Although in saying that, here’s to hoping that Trump’s ego gets massacered on this end and he decides to send everything he has to Ukraine…

On another interesting note, Russia is now apparently escorting it’s grey fleet with frigates and aircraft when in and around NATO countries. Could cause some VERY scary standoffs that could spark further issues. This comes off the back of the story early where Estonia scrambled F16s after they attempted to impound a vessel and Russia launched an Su35 in response. It violated Estonian airspace and also didn’t respond to communications from Estonian operators.

It also immediately fucked off when the NATO Baltic Air Policing F-16’s took off, I’m pretty sure they’re not ready to challenge NATO member-states head on.

100%, but previously they’ve generally not strayed into direct airspace, they enter air controlled space but that’s it. This is definitely a direct provocation and all it takes is one person freaking out and pressing a button to start a war

Germany has joined France, UK and US in lifting all range restrictions on Ukraine using their weaponry. They now have open ability to strike targets anywhere they want within Russia (the US still has some limitations). This is on the back of reports that Germany will be supplying Ukraine with Taurus missiles. While the variant is unknown, they have a potential range of up to 500km, which could allow them to directly hit Moscow and also the Kerch bridge.

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I’m happy with that, so long as the allies are checking where and how these missiles are used. I assume that is part of any agreement, though.

I dare say Ukraine isn’t silly enough to target actual civilian targets that would make them look bad. If they do hit civilian targets, they’ll more come from being shot down and hitting somewhere enroute. Apparently some of the footage out of Russia showing drones hitting apartment buildings comes from electronic warfare measures that stops communications with base. It’s also why they’re shifting to fibre optics at this stage. Some of the battlefield footage is crazy with the amount of fibre optic cables everywhere, trucks and cars are being completely bogged down as they’re getting tangled in the cables.

I did read a suggestion that Ukrainian drones in Moscow aren’t there to primarily cause damage. They’re more there to disrupt air movement, freight and logistics.

Ukraine saying they’ve knocked out 40 odd bombers with a covert drone attack on multiple airbases in Russia. Apparently they smuggled truck loads of drones into Russia for the attack. 2-4 squadrons knocked out in a single attack. Outrageously successful if those numbers are right.

Footage of Bears burning and one being hit by a drone strike - and links to other vids. Crazy.

https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1l0mahp/ukrainian_drone_shows_strikes_on_tu95_bombers/

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When is time for Putin so say yep that will do and try and sue for peace. Or is that not possible for him now?

The only time it was acceptable to try and sue for peace was when their 3 day invasion failed.

The mode of transportation was ingenious. They pretty much built wooden sheds on the backs of the trucks and approached the airbases. When close enough, the sheds mechanically opened and launched the drones… It’s really really telling that Ukraine continuously manages to hit Russian airbases with almost impunity. Every time there’s a major target, they manage to hit it properly. Sort of points to a potential issue with Russian air defences.

Edit:

Looks like they’d been planning it for 1.5 years, shifting stuff in slowly and assembling it in Russia. Imagine being at war with a country and for 1.5 years no realising they were producing drones in your own country… Fucking hell.

Also a bit of a scary one, looks like Russia has commenced a new offensive towards Sumy, They’ve hit the frontline to the west of the Kursk operation and have taken a large amount of ground. Still unconfirmed as to what is happening in the area as of this stage. But the commander of the land forces has official resigned, stating his position was untenable after a training centre was hit by an Iskander missile with 20+ losses.

I’d watch the shit out of that movie if it ever got made. The planning, the build-up, the keeping it secret for such a long duration, and the final attack.

Maybe a 10-part drama even. Great stuff.

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It could have been worse, one of the trucks looks to have burnt down before it could launch it’s load. There’s reported video footage of cars driving past as a truck is launching off the highway. Security is that lax in Russia that they were able to get within a few kilometers of an airbase, park on the side of a main road, take the top off their mobile home/drone launcher and destroy a few billion dollars of Russian aircraft. They also reportedly destroyed an A-50 long range RADAR aircraft. They now only have a single one left.

HBO, where are ya!

amazing

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