Macarthur beat Brisbane (in a game Brisbane were pretty dominant). Really bad result for us, Macarthur imo are the team we’re most likely to beat out to get into the 6 and they go 1 point ahead of us with 2 games in hand.
So after the weekend’s games we have finally dropped out of the six. The table looks like this:
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne City FC | 24 | 23 | 46 |
| 2 | Western United FC | 22 | 10 | 41 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory | 22 | 9 | 38 |
| 4 | Adelaide United | 23 | 2 | 34 |
| 5 | Wellington Phoenix | 22 | -14 | 33 |
| 6 | Macarthur FC | 22 | -1 | 32 |
| 7 | Sydney FC | 24 | -2 | 31 |
| 8 | Central Coast Mariners | 22 | 7 | 30 |
| 9 | Newcastle Jets | 21 | 4 | 25 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers FC | 21 | -7 | 22 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar FC | 22 | -8 | 22 |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 23 | -23 | 14 |
With only two more games to play we will be mathematically knocked out if three more teams reach 38 pts. This will occur if any three out of the following four occur:
- Adelaide win once and draw once
- Wellington win twice
- Macarthur win twice
- CCM win thrice
The soonest this can occur is technically the Adelaide-Roar game on April 30. But our most likely path into the six remains a Macarthur failure, and they play twice this week: Tuesday v Western and Friday vs Victory. If they win either of these games then I’d say our chances go to low single digits (if they’re not there already).
Edit: GD correction as spotted by @Trash
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We’re in real danger on missing out in this years FA Cup.
I think our GD now is -2 after the recent rule breach, which puts us in an even worse position in the unlikely event we finish even on points with Macarthur.
But yep I still see Macarthur as the only team we can realistically overtake. If we win both our last 2 games we’ll be on 37, and if they win 1, draw 2, and lose 1 they’ll be on 37 as well. But hopefully with a slightly worse GD even factoring in the breach.
A hilarious and not totally impossible scenario is WSW beating Macarthur in their last game of the season, and us then beating Brisbane to secure a spot in the finals. It would be the only way they could sink to a new painful low.
This is of course also assuming CCM slip up a bit - they play two F3 derbies over the coming weeks, so hopefully the Jets lift for those with the motivation of making CCM finish outside the 6.
Right you are, ta 
I was copying from an unofficial app.
Macarthur play two games between now and Friday, against Western and MV… we will have a pretty good idea by the end of this week whether we are still in with a fighting chance when we get back from Asia.
Yep, WU vs Macarthur is tonight at 5:05pm. A decent appetiser before our ACL game. WU will be pushing hard for a win as they are still a good shot for the premiership but need to win their games in hand over City.
WU 2 - 0 Macarthur.
Great result for us - Macarthur got a defender (Mariappa) sent off and the goal at the death takes them to a -3 GD.
We stay in the hunt for now and get a decent boost to our chances of making it.
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So we have to root for Victory on Fri night? 
Yep - probably need to hope they beat CCM too…
Now them’s some lucky undies. 
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This result also extends (by one day) the soonest date that we can be mathematically out of the finals. That day is now May 1, Macarthur vs Newcastle.
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Macarthur 1 - 4 Victory
A bittersweet result for us as Victory still have a shot at winning the premiership, but it again gives our chances of making the finals a very solid boost. Macarthur GD also takes a big hit.
Need to hope Jets can manage a win or draw against CCM tomorrow. A few more favourable results and top 6 could effectively be ‘in our hands’.
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I haven’t been watching their games, but Macarthur sure have dropped their bundle!
F3 derby will be interesting.
A Newcastle win would be very good for us, even though they could still catch us (though somewhat less likely thanks to WSW the other day):
| Pos | Team | Played | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Macarthur | 24 | 32 |
| 7 | Sydney | 24 | 31 |
| 8 | Central Coast | 23 | 30 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 23 | 28 |
Draw is somewhat less good, though it probably puts Newcastle out of reach (which isn’t good as they have another Central Coast game in a few weeks):
| Pos | Team | Played | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Macarthur | 24 | 32 |
| 7 | Sydney | 24 | 31 |
| 8 | Central Coast | 23 | 31 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 23 | 26 |
And if Central Coast gets the win you’d have to put them as favourites to get #6 spot from here with two eliminated opponents (Brisbane and Newcastle) from their last three:
| Pos | Team | Played | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Central Coast | 23 | 33 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 24 | 32 |
| 8 | Sydney | 24 | 31 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 23 | 25 |
That Adelaide game ending really sucked fat ass. We probably deserve not to make it for that alone …
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Yeah it was a real killer. If it went any other way fifth would still be in play too.
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It’s over.
Officially?