This entire article is very good.
It’s amazing how other media outlets will convince people that Grace is really just a selfish attention monger & bury her actual message.
All I see is that she uses her platform to stir up these conversations. Noble pursuit, I reckon.
JFC, Chaser …
On preferences, Dickson only needs a 2% swing to dump the cunt.
Jesus, the comments by Dutton on the Trump Gaza situation, fuck me… He’s literally pro-genocide
So is everyone who votes for his government.
I mean considering the fact that Albanese has barely lifted a finger as well…
The Teals are going to throw a shit ton of resources at that seat so it’s going to be interesting.
You don’t have to vote for either of them.
If you vote for someone who’s pro-genocide, you’re pro-genocide.
That Werribee by-election looks bad.
Gird your loins for a Dutton government, I guess…
The trouble is the path to government is either taking a LOT of seats off Labor, or taking the Teal and Green seats back (less likely) - neither party seems likely to make 76 on current polling. Labor, as sitting government, would be offered first opportunity to negotiate with the cross bench to form minority gov.
Labor lost in Weribee but the Libs hardly won, they only got like 4% of the 16% swing.
A reasonable chunk of the primary swing actually went to the Socialists, Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice
Yeah. And if more electorates were like Werribee, id feel better about it.
I worry that some of the electorates are in Queensland.
5 Labor seats from 2022. There’s no path to government for Dutton in QLD, even if the Greens seats in Brisbane go his way as well now the flooding and rental crisis is subsiding.
But not really the ones they need to win, because they hold most of what they can in QLD. They need the 3 brisbanes back from the greens, but the that could be a big ask as a lot of the swing there was based on housing policy and the greens are basically the shadow housing party now. They need at least 11 labour seats and at least half the teals, but they have to sell virtually opposite messaging for those two groups of constituents. For all the narrative about them being ascendant, they are, but the numbers game is a bit more complicated than the narrative. Mainly complicated of course by the teals
An interesting further factor is: which party would the independents back in a hung parliament?
The focus on the Teals is warranted, but a) some of them could go Liberal with the right assurances and b) there’s also Katter, Sharkie, Le, even Gee is technically independent
Hopefully people aren’t under the illusion that a hung Parliament means Labor win.
And a minority government for either party sounds like a nightmare.
I mean, they need to win the seats that have large percentage of muslims, I don’t see how some of Dutton’s current stances on Israel helps there? Unless I’m missing something. To win those, he has to lean back towards religious freedom protection for the religious in general, but that helps him not at all in the teal seats. Cheaper energy works out west, but open hostility to renewables doesn’t help in the teal seats. He’s relying on anger at Labour, which works in America, but the number of parties here allows people to punish labour while still preferencing them. labour can of course hurt us all here, as evidenced in Prahran where the greens basically lost because the ex-labour independent preferenced the Libs above the greens, because he thinks they’re anti-Semitic. But if Labour continues to preference Greens above Libs at the normal rate and presumably decides to run dead again in any seat with a strong Teal/independent it’s a huge hill to climb for Libs to get majority. And a lot of the potential cross bench are a decent chance of siding with labour in an hung parliament if the numbers are close to even
I dunno.
It seems that often migrant populations don’t care as much about these types of foreign affairs issues or even migration issues, as people assume - and they care more about conservative social issues than people assume.
So migrant populations, often the targets of right wing rhetoric, happily vote for conservative parties.
Just a theory.
Any of the Teals who negotiate with the Libs will lose their seat in the next election, unless they manage to get the Libs to back down on nuclear. It’s almost like Dutton is trying to wedge the Teals with that policy, but it will require a lot of other Labor seats to go his way first, and the “nuclear will be more expensive” messaging is going a fair way…
Labour needs to come out and say that if the Libs think Nuclear is fine and nothing to worry about, then they will sign up as long as the waste dumps are in Dutton, Littleproud and Ley’s electorates.