Lower proportions of voters from all parties believed addressing global warming and climate change was an important issue. Support for addressing climate change declined most among Labor voters, from 79.2% in 2022 to 58.6% in 2024.
Notably, among Greens voters 79% believed in 2024 that fighting climate change was important for Australia, down from 90.4% in 2022.
If we assume it tracked somewhere between these two for Teals voters, then climate will remain a significant concern, if not the primary one. But that’s hard to say based on anything I’ve seen published publicly. I think it’s more that the wet Libs voted for the Teals to get climate action (and integrity, which no voters put highly this year) so if the Teals agree to the Libs climate policy, why vote for them instead of the Libs?
This is in part why the Teals have started talking about middle class/small business tax reforms all of a sudden.
Yeah good question. I think with Morrison gone, global climate action looking less effectual, and economic issues more salient, my hunch is that a lot of the electorate will vote independent and want that independent to back Dutton. They will believe (and want to believe) that the independent can keep him honest and make him better.
I grew up in Bradfield, and never in my life thought it would be anything other than a Liberal safe seat.
Enter Nicole Boele, an independant, who in thr last election achieved the largest swing against a sitting Liberal in history. Shes just had a rally that had to be rescheduled 6 times to RSVP interest… hell of a one to watch.
For sure that’s a possibility, but at the end of the day, the electorate votes for their representative and after that it’s up to them who they vote in as govt/PM. There’s even a third option we haven’t talked about of a properly hung parliament with not enough independents willing to back either party to get 76 seats.
3.6 for the TPP. Labours primary was actually down. I cant see their primary vote going up this year, nor their TPP honestly. I think both go down for labour, hopefully most of that to independents and the greens (from my point of view anyway).
I don’t think the Teals will retain all of their seats and I don’t expect the Greens to retain all 3 seats in Queensland.
It leaves the question, what happens if neither party can form Government in minority? Do we go back to the polls? Wouldn’t that be bad for the crossbenchers?
Yup and yup. First Lab, then Lib will be offered opportunity to form government coalition. If neither gets numbers to survive a no confidence motion, GG sends us back to the polls.
This sort of thing happens all the time in countries like Europe (or Israel…) - even Gillard managing to see out a full term was surprising compared to what usually happens there, and that was only a few seats short of a majority. Usually a coalition gets together on the basis of passing particular legislation and falls apart shortly.
Europe is mental when it comes to that sort of stuff. It helps that there’s a whole bunch of smaller parties etc. Just look at what happened in France when they wanted to ensure Le Penn didn’t win. Every single party to the left of her party did an electoral analysis and withdrew all of their candidates to ensure there were no votes being split and allowing the right winger to win by default.
The possible saving grace for the Teals even if concern about climate change has fallen is that the nuclear plan is absolute insanity from an economic perspective too.
Trump got in promising tariffs that were proven time and time again, absolute economic insanity. Dutton will say what he wants and people will believe him.
I completely agree in the outer suburban Labor seats the Libs will be targeting, but I see the Teal seats as more like the Dems in the US. They’re establishment economics all the way.
One thing to point though, is Teals had a huge swing because they had a huge number of people tired of LNP, but they didn’t want to vote for Labour. They can’t exactly count on that swing at the moment. They need to keep what was the disenfranchised voters from the last election. Some of which are going to have very short memories.
Thankfully Dutton is doing his best to piss off a whole load of people.
