Russia v Ukraine - WWIII or Putin's cliff dive?

Can’t blame them. There’s nothing more infuriating when you go to your favorite restaurant and your M1 Abrams Battle Tank doesn’t fit in the car spots that’s been designed for Lada’s, so you’re forced to drive over cars and park on top of them. Don’t get me started on positioning of the main gun, drive in front first, half your tanks sitting out in the middle of the car park. Reverse in, the gun barrel blocks others from getting past.

Those damn Russians architechts and engineers, no foresight when building these pieces of infrastructure. Almost as bad as Australian infrastructure and design.

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The acting governor of Kursk accidently revealed to Putin in a live broadcast that Ukraine has taken 28 settlements before being cut off by Putin

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Quick! Shut all the windows!

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So completely unconfirmed, but saw a reddit post suggesting that the Head of the Kursk defensive operation was replaced by the head of the KGB, who has now been replaced by a bodyguard… The reasoning is that Putin is looking for people loyal to him, rather than good at their job. If true, assuming Putin is just planning on sending conscripts forward with no tactics, just overwhelming numbers.

Imagine trying to get a tank in a Macca’s drive through.

Asides from pressure to draw Russian resources away from the other fronts, I’ve also read some speculation that the Ukranians are effectively looking to capture territory purely for a land swap as part of a peace deal. Interesting thought. They’ve extended their own lines which makes the job of holding their own territory harder, which is an argument against this being a purely diversionary tactic.

Does make sense. Although Ukraine has to hold the territory they gained, which I feel They’ll struggle to do. Putin will just throw resources at the captured land. Doesn’t matter if 10 or 10,000 Russians die retaking it.

It’s a common tactic in the lead up to a peace treaty - but I doubt Russia will comply.

They’re drawing resources away from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions though. Each side has limited resources, though Ukraine’s are more limited than Russia’s. They’ll have more passive defences and hardened positions though, whereas it sounds like the Ukrainians strolled into the Kursk oblast.

I feel like it’s more to do with resources. I can very much expect the Ukrainians to sit still for a while in the area before making a slow and steady withdrawal. What this does show, is that they can effectively still hold large areas of current theatres without massive collapses, but still make targeted attacks into Russia. Suddenly Russia is going to have to hold thousands of troops in reserve or deployed long an absolutely massive border. Just going by a very quick map scan, it’s 680km of frontline that could be potentially opened up.

Going by a random article that popped up, Ukraine currently has approximately 120 men per kilometre of active frontline, with more men in the back for support. This isn’t obviously spread evenly. If Russia was to do the same, that would take about 80,000 troops out of the fight. Realistically they’ll probably need even more than that , as well as artillery and armoured support. That’s a huge drain of resources just to protect fairly useless areas.

Still requires both sides to be willing to sit down.
Putin has shown no indication of this,
And Zelensky has previously been clear they won’t give up an inch of their territory (obviously this can change and you wouldn’t expect him to say anything else).

I’d also read it’s somewhat strategic as it interrupts the main train line from Moscow that serves the eastern front and means Russian short range missiles can’t easily target Kharkiv.

They also just destroyed an airfield housing a few hundred long range glide bombs

Germany’s Cologne-Wahn base has been locked down due to attempted sabotage. Local water contamination is suspected. It is an important hub for sending supplies to Ukraine.

Very high chance that Russia is behind this kind of plot. If they are, does that constitute an attack on NATO?

You would have to unequivocally prove it. They’ve already arrested a number of people throughout Europe for Russian-linked sabotage. I would suggest the Russians are hiring gang members through proxies and paying cash. Almost impossible to trace all the way back to Russia. The only way it would lead to war, would be to capture an FSB agent in the act, with a Russian passport and video footage of Putin giving him a mission to carry out. Otherwise they’ll just blame it on rogue agents etc.

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Ukraine is now reporting further advances into Kursk. To put it into perspective, Ukraine in about a week, has taken more territory that Russia has since the start of January… They’ve also begun distributing aid in the towns and villages that are being occupied. Very different armies obviously, you had the Russians shoving all civilians into essentially prisons and slaughtering them in the streets, whereas the Russians are being treated very well. There’s also no real reports of Russian civilians being aggressive towards the Ukrainian troops.

The Chechen and Russians troops are also doing their best on Tik Tok… One video released by Chechen troops purported a Ukrainian soldier being killed by a drone during a live broadcast. The full video was later posted and there was no drone at all. A second video was released showing a fake “Ukrainian soldier” being captured by Russians…

Another column of troops has been confirmed destroyed, reports of a Su-34 shot down and three airfields have been hit in reportedly the biggest drone attack by Ukraine to date,

The Russians are actively claiming that the advance has been halted.

I feel a smidgen of sympathy for the generals who have to update Putin. Fuck that’d be terrifying.

I’m pretty sure that’s exactly what Putin has been told though. The advance has halted… Can’t see a general telling them how badly they’ve held the front there

In latest updates. Russia continues its push in the South Eastern front, near Donetsk. Ivaniiska has been reported as being taken by Russia troops. They’re also claiming to have retaken a small village in Kursk. Russia also lost a Tu 22 bomber in Siberia after it crashed. No confirmation as to what occurred, or whether it was involved in a combat mission.

The Russian Defence Minister has publicly made statements indicating that he expected truthful reporting on the Kursk front. Goes hand in hand with current intel suggesting that Putin is definitely not being told the truth when it comes to Russian losses etc.

Video footage from Russian civilians indicates that Ukraine may have opened up a secondary front further south to the current Kursk front. Ukrainian troops were sighted in the village centre of Vyazovoye. Suggests potentially a push towards Belgorod and potentially trying to take pressure off the fighting north of Kharkiv.

In the biggest news, Ukraine has made it’s biggest capture of Russian troops in a single event. 102 Russian troops surrendered to Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk. So far, there’s suggestions that the only troops operating in the area are conscripts and Chechen (TikTok) fighters. However Lithuania has sent word that Russia was moving troops from Kaliningrad to bolster Russian troops. No real word as to the state of their training or readiness.

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