Not sure if this is true, but apparently this is the first time a nuclear power has been invaded
Not sure if this is true, but apparently this is the first time a nuclear power has been invaded
Ehhhh.
Pakistan/India?
So over the weekend:
On the Kursk front, Ukraine has knocked out all the main civilian bridges across the river Seym. Put’s a large swathe of Russian territory under massive threat. Pontoon bridges have been set up, but still won’t alleviate supply issues
Confirmation that Ukraine has officially lost Niu York in the Eastern Front. It’s really not looking amazing for them there, although there’s not much talk of capitulation or panic coming out of Ukraine, which is surprising. Evacuation orders have been enacted in the surrounding areas however as Russia continues to make incremental gains. As previously stated, the new CIC is very much interested in protecting Ukrainian lives, so it could just be this, or a general slow withdrawal to pre-prepared fortifications. In previous retreats, there’s been stories of Ukrainian troops being encircled, surrendering or fighting to the death, which haven’t come around during this time.
On the Kursk front, Russia still hasn’t managed to make inroads into the taken territory. Ukraine has instead made incremental gains themselves. Koronevo is now being contested, a town approximately the size of Sudza (6000 pop). Ukraine has destroyed all main civilian bridges leading to an area of approx. 500km2 to the West of the Kursk front and isolated Russian units there. They’ve also wiped out multiple pontoon bridges, going to the extent that they’re hitting pontoon trucks before they even get to their destinations. There’s unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has launched attacks from their territory on the Western border of this territory.
I’m still not sold on the theories being put forth for the Kursk invasion, when Russia is capturing towns on the daily on the Eastern Front.
Apparently it’s been confirmed that Ukraine are using the tanks the Brits gave them in Russian territory. Interesting to see how Vlad takes it
Russian cruise missiles hitting north sea oil rigs?
Usual bluster from the Russians i’d say. I mean what’s Putin going to do? He’s got two options for revenge, declare war on NATO, or go nuclear on Ukraine. Either option ends up with Russia losing
An oil refinery in Russia has essentially almost been wiped out. It’s been burning for 5 days now, with fires spreading to the nearby town. Ukraine also hit another Russian ammo dump in Russia. Ukraine claiming they used a brand new long-range drone
Zelensky reporting a further 3km gain in Kursk, along with taking an extra 2 settlements
Interesting to see what Zelensky’s plan is here. Is he going to start bargaining soon with the Russians? Or just cause them so much damage the Russians bail altogether?
Probably all dependent on the outcome of the U.S. election tbh.
If Trump gets in, use it as bargaining power, if the Trump loses and the democrats stay in, probably double down.
I would say it’s a multi-pronged approach.
1- It’s a huge moral boost for their armed forces that have had almost no significant gains for an entire year. Even their hugely touted counter-attack never really did much.
2- It damages Putin’s credibility and puts huge pressure on him to actually defend the mother land. Also brings into doubt whether they really are winning the war or not.
3- Allows them a big patch of land to use in negotiations. Putin will more than likely concede larger tracts of land to get back original Russian land.
4- Shifts professional soldiers away from other parts of the front line and forces Russia to start defending the entire border, not just the active zones.
5- Gives a decent bit of propaganda about how Ukrainian troops are treating Russians. They’ve been very courteous and provided civilians with all the food and water they need. Goes against the Russian proaganda indicating they’re savage Nazi’s out to destroy and kill all Russians
Also just basic principals at play too. Don’t attack where the enemy is strongest. Don’t attack where they expect you to attack. Force them to react and change the balance of forces in different areas.
What’s interesting, and not really being covered, is that Belarus are building up a sizeable force on their side of the border with Ukraine. Reports vary between 50,000 and 100,000 troops, anti-air defences, artillery, and the rest of it.
Ukraine in response has bolstered forces in the area.
But in my opinion this is Putins doing. He’s finally getting Lukeshenko to get involved. I can see things continuing to go bad in Kursk for Russia, and Putin will tell Belarus to go do the exact same thing but launch in invasion in from the North.
I can’t see Belarus doing it to tell you the truth. From reports, it seems like they’ve sent out a large number of armoured vehicles to Russia, so they’ll be left with the bare minimum. You’d assume the same would apply to ammunition, drones etc. An attack by Belorussia would also potentially allow for a stronger response from NATO, even to the extent of enforcing a no-fly zone over the whole of Ukraine.
Throughout the war, Lukashenko has moved forces to and back from the border, more than likely to for Ukraine to tie up troops in those regions. He’s also terrified of any internal strife. Going by wiki, they have about 400,000 troops in the entire armed forces, this includes 360,000 reserves. If he commits 100,000 soldiers to an offensive in Ukraine that’s a full quarter of his troops, including most of his best soldiers. That leaves him VERY open to internal revolts etc
Dunno, makes sense to me.
I know Belarus doesn’t have the worlds strongest or largest army, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Russia is going to use Belarus to launch a incursion into Northern Ukraine. Not a massive one, maybe to the edge of Chernobyl, just enough for Ukraine to need to potentially move even further troops in that direction, and possibly force a pull out of Kursk.
Whilst it wouldn’t be smart to start active fighting, and you can ask the Russians that were playing around there(well, actually you can’t - they’re dead, but I digress) I don’t see the Ukranians wanting to use to many troops, let alone fight actual combat in and around Chernobyl. During the initial invasion the real defence of Kiev only started after the Russians had passed Chernobyl.
Putin’s not stupid enough to use his own troops again in that area. Lukashenko may be terrified of internal strife, but he’s probably more afraid of Putin.
Ukraine just needs Belarus to hold a small amount of territory, just enough to keep Kiev occupied.
See I disagree with that, having them on the border is probably enough at this stage. Again, if Lukashenko was to invade, it could trigger a very strong response, even from potentially individual countries. Belorussia getting involved has the potential of massively escalating. France has already officially indicated they would be willing to send troops should there be a major breakthrough in the Ukrainian defences. That’s against Russian troops. It could be an even stronger response should Belorussia get directly involved.
It’s also worth mentioning, the Belarus population has generally been more sympathetic towards the West. An invasion by troops of unknown quality could end with disaster. There’s already a decent number of Belorussian troops fighting for Ukraine at the moment.
In terms of Chernobyl, Ukraine didn’t defend the area as it’s so highly contaminated. As is my understanding, the troops directly digging trenches in area all suffered acute radiation poisoning. Fighting any battles there would be a local catastrophe.
Russia just launched it’s biggest airborne attack from the start of the war. 125 missiles and 109 drones were launched into Ukraine. Ukraine is claiming to have shot down 102 cruise missiles and 99 Shahed drones. The attack was directed at Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The worst of it was a direct hit on a dam upstream from Kiev. A catastrophic collapse there, could kill hundred of thousands downstream.
Meanwhile the refinery in Rostov is currently on day 9 of burning. The nearby town has been burnt down as well.