Russia v Ukraine - WWIII or Putin's cliff dive?

transcripts from the US indicate that Korean troops present in Ukraine should be viewed as a red line that’s been crossed. What this means, obviously not sure. South Korea is also up in arms and there’s talk of South Korean officers going to Ukraine to assist in interrogation of any North Korean troops captured.

There will still be decisions to be made, but a logical escalation would be the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Just depends if NATO has the balls to do anything rather than to just sit and bluster

Most people saw this happening when that pact was announced a few months ago, that N Korean troops would wind up on the frontline.

And I wouldn’t be surprised if those estimates are horrifically low. Can’t see North Korean troops being much better than the Convict troops Russia is churning through.

Apparently they’re being issues Russian uniforms - for “plausible deniability”, but it won’t be difficult to distinguish between Ivan the rapist and a North Korean conscript.

Dunno whats worse, being killed on the front line, forced to fight in a war that doesn’t involve your country by another country who doesn’t care for you, or dying of starvation/torture in a labour camp by your own country who doesnt care for you.

Eitherway, it’s yet another Russian escalation that will result in tens of thousands of inexperienced troops being killed. More meat for their meat grinder.

I think South Korea has already sent some defensive weaponary to Ukraine, but are planning to ramp it up, and are looking into sending offensive weaponary with the reports of North Korean ttoops entering the battlefield in the coming weeks.

Some of those K2 tanks would be a nice touch you would think.

I don’t think too many of us would have had North and South Korea fighting a proxy war in the Ukraine on our bingo cards a couple of years back.

1 Like

I think Korea has only sent medical supplies and uniforms. Theyve stayed neutral with requests for weaponry at this stage

Latest US/UK intellegence reports from earlier this month saying Russian forces have suffered between 600-650,000 killed and wounded.

Staggering numbers. Just incomprehensible how the Russian mentality is OK with this.

Even if only 25% are KIA, it’s 150,00+ killed. And I wouldn’t be surprised if that % is much, much higher.

They’re not slowing down either, especially with the North Koreans entering the fray.

1 Like

Don’t forget captured are also part of that number.

They just had the third highest amount of losses in a single day. Its was 1630… They also “lost 33 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, seven tanks, one air defense system, 73 UAVs, 79 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 22 pieces of special equipment”

Didn’t they lose something like 2 million troops a year in WW2?

They might consider that lower number a success.

8.7 million military losses throughout the war and 150,000 or so are attributed to being killed by their own men when accused of dissertation or cowardice. Bearing in mind that soldiers that were liberated from POW camps were generally subsequently executed for the above

Considering in Afghanistan their total casualties was supposedly under 100k in 10 years it’s a pretty astonishing rate. This is what happens when you go toe to toe with another developed nation though. It’s two sided butchery instead of one sided.

I don’t think it’s the fact that they’re going toe to toe. It’s more the fact that first, they under-estimated Ukraine and had their troops slaughtered as they advanced. Then there was a lull and now they’re using WW2 tactics against well entrenched troops with modern weaponry and very modern intelligence.

If you think about it, in WW2 and even Afghanistan, you were 100% relying on fighter planes for intelligence. You throw in satellite’s and yes they’re good, they’re not over head 24/7 and don’t give you that fine tuned view of the battle lines. Drones with HD cameras are ridiculously useful and let you see real time as well as actually investigate locations as though you’re there yourself. Throw in the fact that you no longer need weeks of training and wasted monitions to train someone on anti-tank weaponry. You just need someone with some decent video game experience and even have the ability to pull up and reposition for any missed shots.

Lithuania is reporting the first N. Korean troops have died in combat. They’re saying that Russia is using them in the Kursk salient, which makes it slightly more murky from an official response, considering they’re not attacking Ukrainian soil. The US has indicated that if NK troops become involved, they would lift all future restrictions on the use of US weapons. They currently have very strong restrictions on US weapons being used on Russian soil.

South Korea looks to be increasing involvement and there’s even talk of ex-NK troops being sent to Ukraine as a propaganda tool to try and get them to flee into Ukraine rather than to fight.

In an case, it’ll be an interesting case on how they use the 10,000 or so troops. They’re not Russian troops, so the question will be whether they’re used in the same Russian “meat assaults” or if they’ll be used more tactically. All depends on how expendable they’re seen by both North Korea and Russia.

1 Like

It’s North Korea. Everybody is expendable.

Rheinmetal has now confirmed they’ll have a total of 4 factories producing vehicles and ammunition in Ukraine. I didn’t realise it, but the first one is reportedly up and running and will produce its first batch of Lynx Infantry Fighting Vehicles by the end of the year.

I wonder how much commonality there is between the Lynx & Boxers. Rheinmetall has at least one production facility out here right? Could be spare capacity or scalability to provide components. Though I think we’re actually exporting vehicles to germany now so probably not.

As far as ive read, the factory is also working on repairs and parts, so there’s probably potential for both. In saying that, Lynx looks to be the better suited of the two IFVs in Ukraine based on the fact that it’s tracked and can sport heavier armament.

More with the Ukrainian military industry, Ukraine has indicated that they’re now producing 20 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers a month. The Bohdana is a 155mm howitzer that is compatible with NATO armaments. Ukraine is now also producing its own 155mm shells, with the factory currently in limited capacity, but expected to ramp up by December. On average, Russia is firing 10,000 shells per day with a max of 80,000 and Ukraine is firing 2000 with a max of 9000

Russia is using that artillery ammunition advantage to launch a major offensive in the east. They are reporting they’ve taken two settlements in Donbas, Ukraine reports they are holding them back despite “air superiority and long range fire”. Surely Russia can’t keep up the air superiority for long, given the rate they are losing airframes and the F-16s coming in. Perhaps a push for territory by the end of winter ahead of a swap in a peace deal.

They still have a huge advantage in aircraft. The only thing working in favour of Ukraine, is the fact that Russian aircraft isn’t designed for the same service life as Western Aircraft. The Soviet ones generally have a life of 3000-5000 hours, some extending to 8000 for the most modern fighter jets. Western Aircraft start at around 8000 and some F-15s have a service life of 20,000 hours. With the aging Russian aircraft, you would assume a big proportion are coming towards the end of their service lives. But then the bigger issue is that Ukraine has the same problem. Russia can at least cannibalise jets and piece them together, even if they’re not producing nearly as many as they used to.

In terms of aircraft, Russia has give or take 1700 attack aircraft available, although no confirmations as to the number that are serviceable or lost. Ukraine has 121 without confirming the number of losses. Even with the F-16s and Mirage that are being provided, they’ll jump to 200. The biggest threat is of course ground to air missiles, but most of the launches are happening well within the controlled territories. So unless Ukraine can sneak in some MANPADs into Donetsk, they won’t be able to do too much.

Did see an interesting video. Russian troops have been very vocal in complaining about Korean armaments. They’re saying 1 in 5 artilley shells fail to fire.

1 Like