I couldn’t see Trump making Putin accept a deal that includes Russia losing any territorial gains they’ve made in Ukraine over the last two and a half years.
I couldn’t see Trump even trying
This is also a really good time to post this again.
Oh I’m 100% not suggesting Trump would actually “pressure” Putin. Whatever deal they put forward will be about as one sided as the “Deal of the Century” for Palestine was, and it will function in exactly the same way: legitimisation of the US normalising relations and trade with Russia on Trump’s first day.
So Biden is rushing through another arms package expected to be delivered before Trumps inauguration in February. Will probably be the last one seen for a while.
No word yet on how the rest of NATO and the EU will react.
No matter what deal Putin strikes with Trump, I do not see Ukraine accepting a peace deal with the Russians that has nothing short of a full withdrawal from Ukranian territory. I think most European countries will be OK with continuing to send arms to Ukraine for however long it takes.
With the Trump threatening to pull the US out of NATO, could possibly see the likes of Poland and France and other European nations sending in troops themselves - if anything just to push Russia back to the border and back into Crimea.
Ukraine has also confirmed contact with North Korean troops in Kharkiv. No reports on casualties though.
Looks like - for now at least - they’re being used to bolster Russian soldiers in Kharkiv.
Ukraine and the rest of the world need to go all in for the next couple of months before Trump gets sworn in.
Not saying that we should get in bed with Putin, absolutely not.
Just remember though that the other guy is a populist who got voted in because the populace was dissatisfied with the other options and had absolutely no experience.
He’s also fired many a Minister who went against him.
Definitely don’t back Russia but I don’t trust Zelinsky.
FMD! I’m not racist but …
You do know that you don’t have to go all in, yeah?
Consolidate what they’ve got going into the Winter, replenish and negotiate.
What purpose would going all out right now serve?
Short of direct intervention by NATO militaries, seriously risking the conflict going nuclear, is there anything more to push with? They are currently holding back a Russian advance. There’s only so much allies can do in terms of providing materiel and not warm bodies to use it.
So a few things to note. Zelensky, yes was a populist, but he’s also made some absolutely massive inroads and changes in Ukraine. The EU has minimum standards on corruption, environment, economy and heaps of other things that need to be met before they would even consider membership. They don’t generally shift those massively for anyone (once they’re in, probably a different matter). The fact that they’ve let Ukraine in, shows how much the country has shifted away from the BS corruption from the last few decades.
His election was based on the fact that the populace was dissatisfied with Russian rule and politicians that were doing whatever was in the best interest of Russia. Even now, you have multiple ex-Presidents sitting in Moscow waiting to be reinstated. Yes he had no experience, but he’s been President for 5 years and surprise surprise, there haven’t been any major scandals that have followed him around.
In terms of sacking ministers, who would you be referring to? He’s gone through a number as he’s sacked some for the sake of military change in operations (especially after the southern offensive started so late that Russia was able to properly build up defences). Others were sacked after they were discovered to have Russian links while others were prosecuted due to corruption.
The point stands though, that any negotiated peace will have to come with guarantees that
a) Russia installs a pro-Russian government
b) Ukraine forgoes all territorial claims, especially considering many of the areas taken have huge gas/oil deposits and also contain prime agricultural land.
c) Ukraine forgoes all efforts to join NATO and the EU
Now all those points above are already bad enough. But if you take point a) it will mean a purge of Ukrainian citizens of the likes that haven’t been seen since the Stalin days. You can guarantee anyone in the current Zelensky government disappears. Officers in the armed forces will be jailed and there will be investigations on the majority of individuals. If you want proof of this, have a look at what’s currently occurring in Crimea, Mariupol and a host of other cities that have been taken by Russia.
There’s not a single scenario that is negotiated through Trump, in which Ukraine will come out better or at the very least, equal to where it is now.
Ukraine still has a huge population of individuals that can be conscripted into the armed forces. Some things to note is that Russia really is slowly running out of armoured vehicles. Be they tanks, IFVs or even artillery pieces. It’s a VERY slow attrition, but there will be a point where they honestly won’t be able to do really anything. The fact that they’re now using North Korean soldiers is absolutely huge from an intelligence point of view. It means that Russia is running out of troops to throw at Ukraine. They can obviously conscript, which is what they’re doing, but they’re doing it very slowly and very subtly, without publicising it.
Something funny about the North Koreans, they’ve obviously never been exposed to the the internet in North Korea. Apparently they’re becoming addicted to porn, spending hours looking through it. There’s also video of some very pissed of Russian soldiers inspecting North Korean barracks, that have digital tv’s, fridges, oven etc.
Sorry to spam, but last one from me:
On the US front, they have $6 billion available to them for Ukrainian aid. I can see them going mental
The biggest risk for the NK Government is their soldiers defecting to the West.
Sounds like they have already got a taste of the good stuff.
Even in the unlikely even they all survive and go back to North Korea, they won’t be allowed to talk about what they’ve seen.
How much of all of that is just propaganda though?
Sure, North Koreans have never seen porn before.
They don’t have unfettered internet access and what internet they have, is extremely strongly censored. Officially porn is illegal in the country, so while it’s there illegally, they wouldn’t have close to the Western internet archives. It wouldn’t be that strange to think that they’d suddenly unleash. Especially as you’d have some crazy Russian soldiers that have been living with only men in barracks exposing them to all that stuff.
Ok, who had “unfettered access to porn ends the war in Ukraine” on their bingo card…
Make love, not war