I took a very close look at the Sydney squad 6 weeks before the season began.
At the time, I was of the opinion that Sydney’s success or failure would likely hinge about 80% on whether or not they properly replaced Le Fondre.
If Sydney could get a replacement of the same quality, then I thought we would again be premiership favourites. If the replacement forward was to be a significant decrease in quality to around a slight step up on Ivanovic - which at the time seemed to be an option on the table - then I had us pegged for mid table. If we really rolled the dice on Patrick Wood, who had clocked 11 goals in 11 matches in the most recent NPL NSW Men’s competition, then I thought we could be battling for finals.
Much has been said about Le Fondre’s goalscoring prowess over the past two seasons. It’s indisputable from the past six A-League seasons where Sydney FC have had a striker that is a standard above the competition’s defences we’ve been a more successful club than in the nine seasons prior.
What is often left unsaid is how during Alfie’s time at the club, Sydney have had quite a significant amount of difficulty scoring from midfield. Last season in particular, where Sydney’s defence was one of the A-League’s best ever (conceding less than a goal per match), we still really needed Le Fondre to do the business down the other end of the park.
2018/19 A-League Season
47 total goals by Sydney
18 goals by Le Fondre, 38.3% of total goals.
13 goals by the midfield, 27.66% of total goals. Scored by 6 midfielders, top midfield scorer de Jong with 4.
2019/20 A-League Season
49 total goals by Sydney
21 goals by Le Fondre, 42.86% of total goals.
11 goals by the midfield, 22.45% of total goals. Scored by 5 midfielders, top midfield scorer Ninkovic with 5.
6 weeks ago, the midfield of the squad was basically settled for 20/21, and very similar in personnel to last season, and similar to 18/19. At that time, 12 goals was a reasonable expectation from Sydney’s midfield this season, with 15 being a notable improvement. Even then, the likelihood of Sydney’s midfield even maintaining their 11 goals from 19/20 seemed low, as:
- Expecting +5 goals from Ninkovic this season was probably unreasonable
- Caceres, Baumjohann, and Retre had done little to indicate they’d increase their low scoring to provide more than a handful of goals between them
- With Brattan scoring 6 goals in the past five A-League seasons (including 4 in one season, 18/19), he was unlikely to better O’Neill’s single goal contribution from last season
Up front, 6 weeks ago there was a very big question mark over Barbarouses being able to offer anything of value this season based on his performances in 2020, a mostly unproven in the A-League Buhagiar, and a still developing Ivanovic. It was honestly conceivable then that Sydney could score around 30-35 goals this season, for example:
- Buhagiar 10
- Midfield 10
- Barbarouses 5
- Ivanovic and Wood 5
- Defence 5 (Sydney’s defence scored 4 last season and 6 in 18/19)
That’s just a feasible example where the number of goals could have been expected from; each of those five sources could easily vary up or down.
Following the first match of the 20/21 A-League season, my outlook on Sydney’s chances have improved from very worried to tentatively positive if still a bit apprehensive.
- Buhagiar has shown in additional recent ACL matches that he can score against high quality opposition, with 4 goals in 4 matches. I still think it reasonable to expect that scoring consistently match-to-match and managing to make the most of nearly all his opportunities is nowhere near definite for him, but that a goal every two matches is a fairly reasonable expectation.
- Bobo signing for Sydney in is a huge factor towards likely success. He’s a proven goalscorer in the A-League, and it’s almost inconceivable to think he won’t bring goals to the table. Even if he drops off on his goals per minutes from 16/17 and 17/18, and he’s often playing off the bench, it’s still a near certainty of more goals than Ivanovic/Wood would have brought to the table.
- Barbarouses now has Baumjohann and Bobo on the bench. Even with Corica’s favoured formation suiting Barbarouses the most of those three, there’s now two high calibre players providing the pressure that needs to be on him to perform or to find himself quickly replaced from the starting line-up. It’s now vital for him to step up and actually contribute goals and assists, or for it to be at most three matches more before he finds himself riding the pine.
- Brattan scoring yesterday his recent ACL goal could be an indication that he may offer more goals than expected this season.
- Niewenhof’s goal yesterday and his recent performances show Sydney have five midfielders - Baumjohann, Caceres, Retre, Niewenhof, and Zuvela - vying for two midfield starting spots. All of them are going to have to be making the most of every single minute they get given. Offering goals would be a huge way to differentiate, and I expect more goals from this group as a result.
Regarding goals, come the end of the 20/21 A-League season, where I see Sydney landing now is more like:
- Midfield 12-15 (potentially Ninkovic with 5, and ~2 each from all the other midfielders bar Zuvela)
- Buhagiar 12-13
- Bobo 7-8
- Barbarouses, Ivanovic and Wood 8-10
- Defence 5
Which would put Sydney FC at around 40-50 goals this A-League season. 50 goals is honestly a fairly realistic expectation, with 50-55 possible but not hugely likely.
In summary, Sydney’s A-League success in 20/21 likely won’t come from a single striker as it often has in the past six seasons. The squad is at a level that if players deliver to general expectations based on their past performances then Sydney should be able to win the league again this season.