For the last 3-4 months there’s definitely been a pattern of weather more common in North Queensland.
While there has been the occasional cool change come through we’ve mostly had an onshore flow for the majority of this period. This explains the consistent temperatures rather than the wild swings you see with the normal Northwesterly/Southeasterly wind pattern.
With the Tasman and Coral Seas along with the Pacific Ocean all warmer than normal it’s blowing a continual stream of humid air onto the land which is backing up on the Great Dividing Range providing the perfect environment for storms with intense rainfall.
We’ve always had hot and humid summers up here but it does appear that the pattern is moving further south. Even what they’re getting up in FNQ over the last month is more akin to the weather that they see in PNG and Indonesia.
I don’t think the rainstorms have increased, that’d be more dependent on the years. Part of what’s being remembered will also be affected by some absolutely massive droughts in previous years. The cold though, that’s definitely gone. I remember going to school about 20 years ago, having to wear a jumper, blazer and scarf just to stay warm, and even then, you’d run into school or home to warm your hands up. Definitely not happening as much these days.
It’s about to get a bit wet and windy up here. Looking at potentially 500mm over a 2 day period. Better then getting it all in one day like we did 3 years ago.
Apparently there was a 16.5m wave out to sea off Brisbane yesterday and a few more 10m+ throughout the day.
Sitting over the ocean must be the worst thing it can do - it seems to me that when they come ashore the storms lose energy reasonably quickly, but when they sit over the ocean they can sustain for a lot longer, drenching everything.
Cyclones need water temp > 26.5c for creation and sustainment. The East Australian current runs its hardest at this time of year, dragging warm water down the coast. Rising water temps worldwide mean the heat doesn’t dissipate as fast, allowing Alfred to stay a TC rather than TL.
Wow, sitting through all those boring met briefs has paid off for something I guess.
I’m out of the flood zone this time, thankfully.
I’m up the hill this time though so I’m worried about the wind but I should be okay.
It’s really starting to kick in right now though. The floodplain is under and the rain and wind have really picked up.
We’re about to go through Moderate here in Kyogle so all roues in and out are cut and we’re looking at Major some time tomorrow afternoon. Really not looking good at this stage though.
