Israel v Everyone - M.A.D or Peace in the Middle East?

More like 77 years. The Nakba started in 1948

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Apparently Israel had been infiltrating Iran for a few months. Prior to the main attach that apparently used 200 aircraft, they’d set up rockets near major air defence targets and destroyed them to prevent a defence/

The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict is very convenient timing. Netanyahu has turned his situation from being chastised over Gaza by Western allies to being defended by them after they initiated an attack themselves in Tehran.

Pretty astonishing how quickly multiple news outlets go straight to “3 injured in Tel Aviv” or similar, when 20+ are killed in Iran.
This is pretty typical


One Israeli woman dead! (Also genocide continues)

Sounds like they are reporting both sides as it happens?

Front page of the guardian this afternoon.

Gee I wonder why Israel attacked at this point in time?

Yep. Netanyahu has absolutely played his Western allies massively. He can continue his ethnic cleansing unchecked.

Hell in Tel Aviv - Pravda EN

iron dome seems to not be doing all that well

I think it’s a little bit more complicated than that.

The Iranian regime is quite stuck in the past (unsurprising for a theocracy) when it was formed in struggle against the British-American puppet of the Shah in the seventies. There’s loads of museums and such dedicated to the US oppression during the seventies, they’ve even preserved the CIA base inside the former embassy as a museum. The Shah also had great relations with Israel.

While their modern geopolitics are aimed at peeling off the most conservative Sunni forces from Saudi domination, the Ayatollah’s domestic politics still very much depend for justifications on resisting the former oppressor. It’s not just about what their people are entitled to but about the mechanisms of control of a theocracy over a people known for their culture and liberalism throughout history.

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Thanks, that’s good insight. Any good reading on the us involvement in the 70s? All the Iranians I’ve met (obviously a biased sample given they’ve emigrated) had the theocracy, and talk fondly of the liberal days before the revolution.

How was the US suppressing? Any good reading?it’s a fascinating country.

My comment about entitlement was probably more based around the land Israel is on rather than wider geography, and how everyone sees it as theirs without really considering it should belong to everyone else. See “from the river to the sea” - everyone.

I guess it’s interesting that the west and Australia for example have been able to do move on from their violent pasts (with varying degrees of distasteful episodes and reasons why they could move on) whilst in the middle east there are so many religious nutjobs who ignore the peace, love, tolerance aspects of their religion to instead raise their children in a relative hellscape. I don’t understand.

Persepolis the graphic novel is essential reading for understanding why expats hate the regime, if you haven’t already.

All The Shah’s Men is the book you’re looking for, looks at the way the two overthrew the soviet-aligned Mossadegh regime in 53 as soon as they dared to nationalise oil to fund social programs. In short it’s like if the US managed to overthrow Chavez in 2003.

All the Shah’s Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror All the Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror by Stephen Kinzer | Goodreads

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The American Scandal podcast did a series on the 1953 coup. Short but gives an overview of it anyway.

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Israeli death toll is 13, Iran sitting at over 650… I guess we know who’s hitting civilian centres? At this stage, it’s looking more and more likely that the situation will escalate. Israel is now claiming that Iran had made major tests in nuclear missiles, which is the reason behind the attack.

The irony of it all is that Iran has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (even though they no longer allow inspectors), yet Israel is not.

You couldn’t make it up, the IDF have a command centre based in tunnels underneath a Tel Aviv hospital.

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Is anyone else now comfortable accepting that WWIII is basically upon us?

With Israel and Iran basically at open war with each other, India and Pakistan on a knife edge (although that simmered down quickly), Ukraine and Russia, and everybody expecting China to do over Taiwan at a moments notice, it feels very eerie.

Combined with the United States, and Trump, is it too early to start stocking up on tinned foods, sacks of rice and water purification tablets?

I can see where you are coming from, but no. These are basically regional conflicts, with no real tying links to trigger an all-in conflict (at this time).

Russia is pre-occupied, and China can just sit back and watch others go at it and still fulfil their end goals.

Nah, don’t think we’re close to WW3. It’s just a whole load of proxy wars at the moment and just individual countries punching on with each other because a whole bunch of right wing politicians have decided to get in on populist votes. Israel’s next election will definitely be interesting, especially now that they’re being pummelled with hypersonic ballistic missiles.

In terms of China, I really can’t see an attack on Taiwan being feasible. They’ve made themselves way too important, on a global scale, in microchip manufacturing. For the US or Russia to shift it over, you’re looking at around 10-20 years before they could even be a blip on Taiwan’s radar. I also think that Ukraine has shown that it’s not that simple when you have technological parity with your opponent. Throw in the fact that the West has shown they’re not scared to lead with some heavy sanctions, it’d be making China think twice. Especially when you think that Taiwan has been preparing for way longer, they have a whole bunch of very deep tunnel defences, there’s only a handful of landing beaches available and the whole place is riddled with AA defences.

Not to sound like a prepper, but I’ve had a two week deep pantry in stock at all times since the start of the Black Summer, and I think it’s a perfectly reasonable response to do so, in fact most relevant emergency services across the western world encourage people to do so.

Yeah, it’s not like the 1930s was full of proxy… uhh… or individual countries launching invasions of… well there definitely wasn’t right wing populism taking advatage of new media to… um.

Trump canning Obama’s original Iran nuclear deal (and Biden making no effort to rebuild it) looks like fucking genius now, doesn’t it?

Oh, and who wanted to sabotage the original deal? Netanyahu.

And when Trump (of all fucking people) was about to get a sixth meeting this last weekend to progress a new version of the deal, who literally blows it up (including killing Iran’s chief negotiator)? Fucking Netanyahu.

Israel would be far safer without him there.