Doubts the Libs will get much more cut through from here. People are now in holiday mode and checking out.
I dunno, plenty of Easter lunches are going to be ruined at the mention of politics this weekend.
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I wonder if weâre getting to a point where people will chuck some money at the LNP, then vote for them.
Dutton specifically flagged once he took over that his strategy would be to abandon the âheartlandâ and aim for the disenfranchised middle class, a la Trump. This is why so much of the rhetoric has been around nuclear and gas, and the far-right is pushing hard on the âLab-Green renewables are expensiveâ nonsense. Plus the whole ad campaign by the gas cartels.
The goal isnât to target people who might have voted for them in the heartlands, but to win seats off Labor by muddying class lines. Unfortunately for him, the average level of media literacy in this country is a bit higher, so straight up fake news doesnât win elections so well. But the point isnât even necessarily winning this election, itâs shifting the narrative so that Duttonâs dry-lib hard right will never lose control of the party to the wet-libs again, and that these are the terms future elections will be fought on - Labor is the âbig governmentâ party and the Libs are for the âlittle guysâ that middle class people always think of themselves as.
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Hadnât thought about that longer term.
So what happens to the moderate libs? Teal party and we get greens and Labor on the left and teals LNP on the right?
Or does the conservative version of eventually LNP fail and they somehow shift back closer to the centre? Just hard to see that happening without alternatives in their ranks.
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LNP keeps in going right, at the same time as the teals get bigger. Eventually they realise that they can wield real power and combine into a new party to take the centre-right position. As climate change gets worse, the greens get more support, leading to 4 broad groups. Greens left, Labor centre, teals centre-right, and LNP forced to join up with the RWNJs in an attempt to remain relevant.
I think this is the most likely outcome. We end up looking something closer to the countries in Europe with a somewhat less two-party system. The broad church for both right and left doesnât seem able to survive climate going from a sideline issue to centre stage.
That being said, if Dutton does do the unlikely and romp home, weâll be back to relatively usual transmission, only both parties will have shifted further right than ever. I think he and the dry-Lib architects are banking on being able to end the impact of climate on electionsâŠ
Maybe a dumb question, but can you explain dry-lib vs wet-lib?
Iâve not encountered that distinction before.
Its interesting that has happened in Europe, but the UK which we are based on has remained 2 party. Does Westminster really work with 4 parties? I guess it has with lib-nats so farâŠ
Surely Labor and liberal see the writing on the wall and return to the centre to maintain their relevance out of self interest alone. Surely?
It annoys me that people say we are a two party country and then say oh god, what if there is a minority government, a coalition.
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Is it the same people?
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Not whinging, Iâm all for minority government. It seems like it is more likely to work to actually produce better outcomes through negotiation in the best interest of the country, not unchecked self service aimed purely at the next election.
Genuinely not sure how it would work given so much of our government structure is based on convention. But youâre probably right, works perfectly fine with the coalition currently.
It annoys me that the term âminority governmentâ gets used at all in a country with a bicameral system where the government almost never controls both houses.
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They generally call themselves the left and right factions of the party. Turnbull was âwetâ, Dutton is âdryâ. The idea being that they largely agree on right wing economic principles, but the wet Libs are more progressive on social issues.
Apparently the term was actually coined in the UK under Thatcher, where the opposite was true - the Tories largely agreed on conservative social values but some didnât want to go as hard on neoliberal economics. Similar vibe to calling someone a limp noodle - the idea being they donât have the strength to be a hard liner.
Donât forget that the Queensland coalition has merged into one party, which is probably how Dutton would like it nationally - never have to worry about the âwet Libsâ again. After all, Holmes a Court and the Teals donât have the backing of big business to bankroll them, so they are probably banking on them to fizzle out.
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The amount of highly embarrassing shit going wrong for them is incredible, itâs like they smashed a mirror factory
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And on that note, prepolling is open. Vote early, vote often.
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The postal forms came last week for me, Mrs Foot and both of our parents. Rippingly efficient from the AEC. All filled out late last night and will be popped in the mailbox this morning. 
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Always love when they ask me âHave you voted already today?â because I always hit them with a âNo but Iâll be coming back later.â
Possibly why Dutton hasnât turned as hard to racism, heâs afraid of opening up space for the far-right to eat into their primary:
A big slab of that may turn out to be a resurgent Pauline Hanson One Nation. Teals may also break new ground.